As you know, the White House has decided to proceed by placing in Poland at least ten intercepting systems, and the relative guiding radar in Czech Republic, within 2012, with the excuse of having to save a possible ballistic attack from Tehran against Europe. Moscow has consistently argued that such a risk does not exist, that the Polish system is directed against Russia, and therefore Russia will take its countermeasures. The general is aware of other disturbing signs that support his fears. As the strange "scenario" prepared by the CSIS of Washington (Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private think-tank close to intelligence circles) which forecasts an attack to Putin for the Orthodox Christmas, January 7, 2008.
According to this prophecy, internal national-bolscevik environments would kill Putin, and not to transform the country into an accomplished democracy West-style, but to establish a dictatorship that will get rid of that few of Russian representative institutions.
But this possibility does not worry the CSIS, quite the contrary: the new dictator will be a better friend for the West than Putin, and will be allowed to militarily expand in Central Asia again, becoming a useful force for containing the Islamic world, with a too exuberant demographics . In return, the new Russia will be allowed to become "the dominator of energetic market"; at that point the Russian resources but will be back under the control of Anglo-American oil companies, thanks to the openings ofa friend-dictator. Instructive detail here: CSIS forecasts that, as Putin falls, the new group at the power will unleash an anti-corruption campaign to discredit and eliminate that part of the system still loyal to Putin. This method has already been applied by the United States and has worked in several countries (in Italy with the opertaion called "Mani pulite"/Clean Hands) to destroy the previous ruling classes.
Although we are unable to verify the credibility of such a prediction, such a detail suggests that some prophecies born in the USA tend to come true. The CSIS is, after all, the central in charge for implementing the new strategy contrary to Bush's war methods that caused disasters: the 'smart power' .
It is interesting to note that during the recent Russian elections, the Economist (the magazine of Rostchild) commented that the effort made by Putin to collect on his person as many votes as possible, even with unscrupulous methods, did not was an anti-western meaning, but rather an attempt to strengthen himself inside his group against the group of power on his side. The Economist says, or knows, that this group, which apparently supports Putin, is making him an underground frond; and this is a group that has "power and huge financial resources", collected in the recent years.
The Economist also states that Putin may become a victim of this group. And here comes the unbelievable coincidence: the Economist predicted that the Italian prime minister assassinated Aldo Moro was going to be liquidated (with a cover caricature of Aldo Moro and the caption: "Comedy is over") a few weeks before the kidnapping by the Red Brigades. Nowadays, Putin has been just nominated the Time's Person of the Year, and earned all the cover of the magazine. Only coincidences? We hope so.
Anyway, these scenarios may be a sign of desperation of the West, which is unable to prevent the resurrection of Moscow as a global political actor; and it can be an act of psychological war, perhaps for embitter suspects and fractures into the group of Putin's power . But this can be a project being implemented.
It is more than likely that the central policy of 'smart power' feel it is urgent to do something to counter the new activism in Moscow on the scene, especially in the Mediterranean. Recently Russia has started the move to a navy port in two Syrians. Now, we add another novelty: Greece, a NATO member, has decided to buy from Moscow well 415 armored porta-truppe BMP-3 an important committed by more than 1.2 billion euros. The same Novosti wonders how Washington will react to this intrusion in the market for American arms. A protected market: NATO from Brussels controls the appropriateness el'intercambiabilità materials for all war allies, and that means that the weapons are, at least for design, made in the USA and corresponding to specific concepts and American tactics (which are bankruptcy revealed in Iraq).
But this is not the first time that Athens is given in Moscow. Practically his entire defense anti-aerea consists of Russian missiles from portable IGLA, the weapon systems in the short or medium-haul Osa-AKM, Tor-M1 and Buk M1-1, the missiles off raggion S-300 PMU-1. Without counting anticarri Russian Kornet and Fagot, and means by landing air cushion Zubr (purchased from Ukraine). Even then Madeleine Albright had harsh pressure on the Greeks against such purchases, in turn, pressed by Turkey, just glad to see his enemy traditional form of such armaments. Athens could somehow convince the Americans, perahps indicatin that Turkey, the traditional eney and member of Nato, knew too well the arms NATO can be required to respect.
But this time is different. The Greece, which already at the time of Kosovo was openly on the side of Belgrade, took note-better than most other Europeans servant - that the nature of NATO has changed, that the old notion of "friend" not attaglia more to the USA, and that the international framework is radically changed. The reappearance forces in Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean may be trying to position themselves Athens port where its culture and tradition, Orthodox and filo-slava. Riemergono ancient solidarity and strength reflect the national destiny posters. Greek Prime Minister Costas Caramanlis is the official visit to Moscow for three days (2)
This article appeared on http://www.effedieffe.com/rx.php?id=2504%20&chiave=putin
Notes
1) Andrew Kuchins, «Alternative futures for Russia to 2017», CSIS: www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid=Politics
"A scenario from the report".
Another scenario projects the emergence of a KGB-driven nationalist dictatorship after Putin is assassinated on Christmas night, Jan. 7, 2008. Sechin, Patrushev and Viktor Ivanov take over the country's leadership as the caretaker, President Zubkov, virtually disappears from the scene. The siloviki, never quite happy entirely with Putin's Plan for Russia, put forward Vladimir Yakunin who takes leadership of the United Russia Party (which is renamed Glory to Russia) and easily wins the presidential election.
Yakunin's rule is heavy on Chinese-style anti-corruption measures that visibly shake up the Russian elites after Moscow's former mayor Yury Luzhkov is found guilty of corruption and sentenced to death. Following an increase in nationalist rhetoric, drastic anti-immigrant measures are implemented and guest workers from Central Asia and China are strictly quarantined and are not allowed to hold ownership in any business.
Having dismantled most of what remained of Russia's democratic institutions, Yakunin, however, maintains much of the liberal economic policies instituted under Putin and welcomes increasing flows of foreign investment. The economic and political system he develops is modeled on Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore, and it is quite successful in ensuring Russia's rapid economic growth. By 2017, Russia is a $6 trillion economy and the ruble is traded at 10 for the euro.
Despite the nationalist rhetoric Russia's foreign policy does not turn anti-Western, but rather acquires a brutally pragmatic character that seeks to maximize Russia's self-interest. Yakunin consolidates the post-Soviet space by driving Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan into a confederation with Russia, with Belarus falling into Russia's fold even earlier. The new confederation becomes a market maker in international energy markets competing and cooperating with OPEC.
Moscow's ties with Washington actually strengthen as successive U.S. administrations welcomed increased stability and improved business environment due to anti-corruption measures while recognizing Russia's role in containing the political instability and rising radical Islam in Central Asia. Washington resigns itself to the failure of its previous policies to block Russian reconsolidation of the former Soviet Union.
With Russia's economy roaring, incomes rising rapidly and political opponents purged, Yakunin lengthens the presidential term to seven years and is reelected with 95 percent of popular the vote in 2015.'
2) «Les armes russes et la position de la Grèce», dedefensa, 15 dicembre 2007.
